Based on this week's reading, reflect on complexity science and theory in organizations and the butterfly effect (Obolensky, p.66).
Identify 2 examples where “small changes yield large results” in your organization.
What are the implications of complexity theory for you and your organization and how can you use this to drive improvements?
“Complexity suggests many interconnecting parts each affecting each other in an open interactive and iterative process which cannot be controlled or fully predicted” (Obolensky, 2016). Many organizations today operate in a complex environment. This complexity has been enhanced by modern technology in numerous ways. For example, information is available at our fingertips; with just a few clicks on a keyboard or a smartphone, I can learn detailed information about a business; their operating practices, and their environmental and fiscal responsibility. In addition, modern technology has made it possible to locate detailed reviews about a company’s products and performance within just a few minutes. With modern transportation capabilities it truly is a world wide market. There is no need for me to go to the Mom and Pop operation here in town when I can have products delivered to my home from anywhere in the world within just a few days. It truly is a complex environment, and most experts agree that complexity will increase in coming years (IBM, 2010).
However, according to Obolensky (2016), “Complexity, and the dynamics that drive it, are discoverable.” A basic understanding of the theories of complexity science can help today’s leaders understand the complex environment in which they operate. Allen (2011) stated that “A series of observations from the study of nonlinear dynamics and complex systems is scientifically well established and relevant to our discussion,” and “the behavior of [these] complex processes can be quite sensitive to small differences in initial conditions.” This initial conditions sensitivity has been alternatively termed the butterfly effect.
In 1961 mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz was working on a mathematical model of the weather. He ended up with twelve differential equations that took into account different variables including wind, atmospheric pressure, and temperature. On one particular day Lorenz wanted to re-examine a set of data that he had previously analyzed. After he ran the computer model for the second time he realized that the end result was dramatically different from the initial model he had previously run. The following image is a sample of Lorenz’s two runs. The divergence in the two lines starts off very small, but by the end they are completely different.
After examining the data Lorenz found the source of the discrepancy; the printout from the first run of the computer model contained only three decimal places, whereas the computer’s memory stored up to six decimal places. To save time Lorenz had started the second run of the computer model from the midpoint, using data that was printed out from the first run. The tiny discrepancy, the third to the sixth decimal places, led to a completely different outcome (Bradley, 2010). Obolensky stated that “Lorenz made an accidental but very significant discovery - that a very small change within a complex system (such as weather) can produce a very large difference to what would have otherwise happened” (Obolensky, 2016). This is known as the butterfly effect.
Within the organization that I work for there have been a few “small changes . . . which yielded large results” (Obolensky, 2016). First is a change to a management position and second, a change to the leave policy.
About eighteen months ago the director of operations was replaced. The man who took the job is completely different from men who have held the position in the past. He is much more personable and he seems concerned about each individual. He asks how your family is when he speaks to you. Past directors have kept it “all business,” which has made them seem uncaring. He admits that he is fallible and has weaknesses, and he has a bit of a self-deprecating sense of humor. Past directors have tried to maintain an image of impeccability which has made them seem unauthentic. Past directors have used command and control leadership tactics, whereas the new director is empowering to those around him. This change has had an impact on company morale. I have even noticed that other managers have adopted some of his personality traits. One flap of the butterfly’s wings has yielded large, positive, results.
Another example of a small change that has yielded large results is a recent change to the company’s leave policy. Near the end of 2017 a new pay policy was released which changed the vacation time earnings. Prior to the change employees earned ten days of vacation for the first fifteen years of employment, after which time we would earn fifteen days of vacation. Fifteen years is a long time to wait to earn a third week of vacation! However, in the most recent revision to the pay policy the third week of vacation is earned after ten years of employment. I do not know what percentage of employees was impacted by this change. I have just completed eleven years with the company, so this small change has a large impact on me! This has increased my morale and helped me think of my position with the company as long term. Whetten and Cameron (2016) indicated that more time away from work is a better motivator than increased salary. That rings true with me!
A basic understanding of complexity theory can help me to know that it is possible to make sense of complex situations. However, it is essential to step back and get a systems view as opposed to a component view. Leaders who try to understand how the system interacts will know that fine tuning with innovation, creativity, and adaptation will be ever present. As has been shown, even very minor adjustments can lead to large changes that have the potential to yield wonderful results.
References
Allen, P. (2011). The SAGE Handbook of Complexity and Management. Los Angeles, CA: SAGE Publications Ltd.
Bradley, L. (2010). The Butterfly Effect. Retrieved from http://www.stsci.edu/~lbradley/seminar/butterfly.html
IBM. (2010). Capitalizing on complexity: Insights from the global chief executive officer study. Retrieved from https://www-01.ibm.com/common/ssi/cgi-bin/ssialias?htmlfid=GBE03297USEN
Obolensky, N. (2016). Complex adaptive leadership: Embracing paradox and uncertainty (2nd ed.) New York, NY: Taylor & Francis
Whetten, D. A. & Cameron, K. S. (2016). Developing management skills 9th ed. Boston, MA: Pearson.
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